Sharp Gender Shifts in Party Electorate for 2022 midterms

Party registration by demographic can tell us a lot about voters – what issues they find important, when they vote, how they vote, where they live, etc. At Kansas Voting Data, we watch these trends very closely to determine what motivates these individual voters, and how best to reach them prior to the next election.

We heard a great deal of national analysis leading up to, and following, the midterm elections regarding support of one major political party versus another based on voter demographics. But what about Kansas voters? While we found that there were no significant shifts in party alignment by most demographic categories, there was one that stood out: party preference by gender.

Among early voters in the Kansas midterm election, 63% of the Democratic vote was female, while female voters made up 51% of Republican voters. But as it turns out, those numbers reflect a larger party registration reality, as opposed to anything about early voting for this particular election. The most recent data indicate that male voters make up 39% of Democratic Party registrations, 50.6% of the Republican Party, with all other parties combined at 49.4%.

So the question is: Are female voters gravitating more toward the Democratic Party? Since the 2016 General Election, the answer would seem to be yes, with more females registering as Democrats, outpacing new registrations by males (the blue line):


What these data show is that since Kansas Voting Data’s earliest research, Kansas Democratic voter registrations is 2% more female, with the percentage of male registrations dropping from 41% to 39%. At the same time, Republican registrations are about 1% more male, from 49% to 50%.

What does this mean and how can these data be used? First, it is an indication of the issues embraced over one party versus the other, as we observed in a blog post on the surge in voter registration leading up to the August primary. This will aid candidates for office as they craft a message appealing to their voters.

Second, it will have an impact on HOW that message is delivered. Research has shown that different demographics consume their information differently, and knowing WHO is consuming that information helps in delivering the message not only WHERE they are, but WHEN they are.

While there is still much data to be analyzed, it is encouraging that we have already identified significant useful trends that can be applied to voter outreach in future elections. Knowing who these voters are is the key to effective communications.