2020 Primary Turnout Predicts Historic General Election Turnout

The 2020 general election is likely to break records. More registered voters than ever before. More people voting by mail. More ballots cast early than in previous years. This election is set to be historic. And the data is showing it. 

Primary elections have notoriously low voter turnout; however, an increase in turnout during a primary election typically indicates a higher turnout in the following general election. When we compare the voter turnout of the August 2016 primary (23.5%) to the August 2016 primary election (34.2%), we can see distinct upward momentum. This is particularly evident when we divide the electorate by age.

The yellow line in the chart above shows the percentage change in turnout from 2016 to 2020, and the youngest voters have increased their turnout by more than 2%. With increased enthusiasm among young voters, who are typically less-likely to turn out, we can expect both young people, and the electorate at large, to have an incredibly high turnout in November.